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Interest Held Stable in India as Prices Rise

By Elise ~ December 18th, 2013 @ 3:07 pm

India’s central bank has released an unexpected announcement that it will not change the policy interest rate in a bid to support growth. However, as consumer prices continue to rise faster than in any other Asian country, the bank also promised to intervene if inflation does not begin to tail off.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the majority of analysts expected the rate to increase from its current level of 7.75% to 8%. Of 31 analysts surveyed, only five predicted that the rate would remain stable.

The expectation of an increase was perhaps an understandable prediction. Since taking charge just a few months ago, the bank’s current governor Raghuram Rajan has been noted for his increases to interest rates. Overall, he has increased the rate by 50 basis points in his tenure so far as governor of the Reserve Bank.

Rajan described the move as being “on hold” and “waiting for more data.” He expressed the opinion that the current high rate of inflation may be temporary, and said that the bank would not react to every spike in the rate. However, he also issued reassurances that if this spike does not prove temporary when the next round of data is released, the bank will revise their position. He described the bank as “vigilant” in looking out for this possibility, and said that action may take place on off-policy dates, depending on the situation.

With rising prices putting increasing pressure on companies and consumers alike, there is no doubt that inflation in India is too high. However, it is also true to say that growth in the country is very low. This reached a four year low recently, only beginning to pick up again last quarter. This no doubt feeds into Rajan’s decision to emphasise support for growth at present in the hope that inflation will prove temporary.

“Clearly growth is weaker than we would like, inflation is higher than we would like,” said Rajan in a statement. “It would be wonderful if we had the normal situation of extremely high growth and high inflation and extremely low growth and low inflation, in which case policy is very easy.”

The fact that this is not the case has forced the bank to make a decision between aiming their policies at growth or prices. In defending the decision they came to, they pointed to indications that vegetable prices may be about to drop, alongside an increasingly stable exchange rate and the promise of lag effects from previous increases.

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